Twenty-nine and OH?
It’s easy to see why Miami (OH) is 28-0 when you look under the hood. Head Coach Travis Steele has them playing an incredibly modern, analytics-friendly style of basketball. Their philosophy this season can be summed up in one sentence: We are going to run the floor, share the ball, and simply outscore you. Miami (OH) is an absolute juggernaut on the offensive end. Miami (OH) doesn’t want to play slow, half-court, grinding basketball. Miami (OH) wants to get up the floor fast and put points on the board quick. Can Western Michigan
Miami (OH)
Miami (OH) is averaging a staggering 91.6 points per game, making them the 2nd highest-scoring team in the entire nation (out of 365 Division I teams).
It’s not just them chucking up shots either; their Offensive Rating (points scored per 100 possessions) is 125.0, which ranks 3rd in the country. Miami (OH) averaged about 74 possessions a game, meaning they pushed the pace constantly.
A major part of their offensive success is how incredibly well Miami (OH) shoots the ball, especially inside the arc, which opens up the perimeter. Their Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) hovers right around 60.1%. They shoot an elite 63.6% on two-point attempts while still hitting around 39.5% from three-point range.
When a team shoots that well from everywhere, defenses have to pick their poison.
Instead of relying on one superstar who can be double-teamed, Miami (OH) spreads the wealth. If you shut down one guy, three others will beat you. You don’t get 5 guys in double figures without moving the ball. Miami (OH) excels at finding the open man rather than playing “hero ball.”
Miami (OH) has a deep rotation with at least five guys averaging double-digit points:
Brant Byers: 14.7 PPG
Peter Suder: 14.6 PPG
Evan Ipsaro: 13.9 PPG
Eian Elmer: 12.1 PPG (plus a team-leading 5.3 Rebounds per game)
If Miami (OH) has a vulnerability, it’s on the defensive end—but it’s by design. Because Miami (OH) plays so fast, there are more possessions in the game, which naturally leads to the other team scoring more points too.
Miami (OH) gives up 74.1 points per game (which ranks 195th nationally). However, their Defensive Rating is 101.0 (64th in the country), which means on a per-possession basis, Miami (OH) is actually getting solid stops. Miami (OH) just relies on their historic offense to build insurmountable leads.
Western Michigan
Western Michigan presents a massive contrast to the undefeated Miami (OH). While Miami is cruising at 28-0, the Broncos are currently 10-18 (4-11 in the MAC) and are essentially trying to play “spoiler” as the massive underdog in tonight’s matchup.
The biggest struggle for Western Michigan this season has been stopping… well, anybody. They struggle to protect the paint and the perimeter simultaneously.
They rank 329th out of 365 teams in points allowed, giving up an average of 79.8 PPG.
Their Defensive Rating is a rough 114.1 (334th nationally). Opponents are shooting 54.4% on two-point attempts against them, which is a major red flag considering Miami (OH) specializes in high-percentage two-point scoring.
Coach Dwayne Stephens has built a team that tries to stay in games by winning the physical battle, even if they aren’t the fastest or most skilled team on the court.
They are actually a solid rebounding team with a +1.6 rebound margin. They average 36.3 rebounds per game, often out-muscling opponents for second-chance opportunities.
Unlike Miami’s lightning-fast pace, Western Michigan prefers to “grind it out,” using their depth to rotate fresh bodies into the paint to disrupt the rhythm of higher-scoring teams.
The Broncos’ offense is almost entirely driven by transfer players. They lack a homegrown “star,” which leads to some inconsistency in their chemistry during high-pressure moments.
Their top three scorers are all seniors or juniors who transferred in:
Justice Williams (Robert Morris transfer): 14.9 PPG
Jalen Griffith (Navarro College transfer): 12.7 PPG
Jayden Brewer (FIU transfer): 12.6 PPG
Between these three players, they account for nearly 55% of the team’s total points. If you shut down one of these three, the Broncos’ offense often stalls.
One thing Western Michigan does exceptionally well is take advantage of “free” points. They play aggressively enough to get to the line and they make them count.
As a team, they shoot 74.0% from the free-throw line, which is well above the national average. In close games, this is their greatest weapon for staying within striking distance.
While they shoot a decent percentage from deep, they don’t take enough threes to truly stretch a defense like Miami’s.
They shoot 35.2% from three (respectable), but they only rank 235th in the nation for three-pointers made per game. They tend to settle for mid-range twos, which the analytics say are the least efficient shots in basketball.
The Line: Western Michigan is a 11.5 point underdog at home.
The Key Matchup: Can Western Michigan’s Jayden Brewer (who leads them in rebounding at 6.7 per game) stop Miami’s Eian Elmer? If the Broncos can win the rebounding battle by +5 or more, they might keep it close.
Key Takeaways
The “Unstoppable” Offense: Miami (OH) is currently the #1 shooting team in the country (52.9% FG). They are 3 wins away from a perfect 31-0 regular season.
The Broncos’ Hope: Western Michigan is a much better team at home (7-6) than on the road (3-12). They actually out-rebound their opponents, while Miami tends to get out-rebounded. If the Broncos can control the glass and slow the game down, they might cover the 12.5-point spread.
Injury Note: Miami is playing without Evan Ipsaro (13.9 PPG), who is out with a torn ACL. This makes guards Peter Suder and Luke Skaljac even more critical for the RedHawks tonight.
Groms Prediction: Miami (OH) 87, Western Michigan 71
